TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Straits Times Index STI (UPDATED WEEK 50) 16th Dec 2018

Ticker: TVC:STI

The technical analysis would be segregated into 3 parts

  1. Short Term – This would be updated once a week (Next update – weekly)
  2. Mid Term – This would be updated once a month (Next update End Dec 18)
  3. Long Term – This would be updated once a quarter (Next update End Feb 19)

(Note: Past dated short term analysis is after the Long Term Analysis. This is for us to track our track records)

 

Short Term analysis (Updated 16th Dec 18):

Using the daily candle stick with a time frame of 2-3 years, we have the below observations:

 

  1. As highlighted last week on the weakness of the break up, STI has indeed retraced and get pulled back into the down trend channel.
  2. Chart is trading below 150 and 200 days of moving average (MA) and on 50 days of MA
  3. RSI, MACD & Oscillation continued to show signs of weakness
  4. If STI goes below 50 days MA on Monday, we may see a situation of back testing the critical support of 2,954 range as mentioned in the mid term analysis weeks ago.
  5. Do note that we are currently in Dec and Sudden reversal could happen (i.e year end window dressing phenomenon). The point of reversal would be around the range of 3,086 (50% Fibonacci level)

 

Mid Term Analysis (Updated 25th Nov 18):

  1. With a larger time frame of 12 years, we can see that STI has reached the critical support of 2954 and this level has to be supported for STI to be considered as still within the uptrend.
  2. As such, it would be good for us to monitor on how the market is moving in the upcoming week. Risk to reward is at the highest at this level.

 

 

Long Term analysis (Updated 25th Nov 18):

  1. Using the weekly candle stick, and a larger time frame of 24 years, we can see that STI is still on its secular uptrend.
  2. Similar to Mid Term analysis, it shows that STI is currently testing the key support level
  3. RSI is suggesting that STI is nearing oversold region where further downside would be limited

 

 

 

 

Past weeks Short Term analysis:

 

 

 

Short Term analysis (Updated 9th Dec 18): Actual in line with expectation

Using the daily candle stick with a time frame of 2-3 years, we have the below observations:

 

  1. As predicted last week, STI has indeed done a break up from the bearish structure
  2. While break up has occurred, we can see that the strength of the break up is weak and market has immediately done a back testing on the break up at 3,111 level
  3. I would be extremely cautions on this; if the support of 3,111 is not able to hold, chances of STI going back into the downtrend channel is highly likely.
  4. Strength of MACD, RSI & Oscillation are currently showing signs of weakness
  5. Chart is trading below 150 and 200 days of moving average (MA) and above 50 days of MA

 

 

 

Short Term analysis (Updated 2nd Dec 18): Actual in line with expectations

Using the daily candle stick with a time frame of 2-3 years, we have the below observations:

 

  1. STI is currently very close to breaking out of the bearish structure and there could be a chance for a breakout to happen in the coming week.
  2. Key resistance turn support level to look out for it at 2954 level (2954 have been the key resistance in Apr, Jul and Dec 2016)
  3. Strength of MACD and Oscillation are currently strengthening up
  4. Chart is trading below 150 and 200 days of moving average (MA) and above 50 days of MA
  5. Do note, if STI did not break out on Monday/Tuesday, it would most likely be going down to retest immediately term lower – low.

 

 

 

 

Short Term analysis (Updated Week 47 – 25th Nov 18): Actual is broadly In line with expectations, however STI did not exactly play out as per immediate analysis. 

Using the daily candle stick with a time frame of 2-3 years, we have the below observations:

 

  1. STI is on the downtrend where Stoch & RSI are both not at oversold region. This would suggest there are still room for further decline
  2. Key resistance turn support level to look out for it at 2954 level (2954 have been the key resistance in Apr, Jul and Dec 2016)
  3. Strength of MACD and Oscillation are weak at the moment
  4. Chart is trading below 50, 150 and 200 days of moving average
  5. Basis technical drawings, we can see that STI would be facing immediate headwinds to retest the key support level.