Technical Analysis: Gold (Updated Week 52) 29th Dec 2018 (Short, Mid & Long Term updated)

Ticker: Gold (US$/Oz) TVC:Gold

The technical analysis would be segregated into 3 parts

  1. Short Term – This would be updated once a week (Next update – weekly)
  2. Mid Term – This would be updated once a month (Next update End Dec 18)
  3. Long Term – This would be updated once a quarter (Next update End Mar 19)

Important Note 1: Past dated analysis is after the Mid/Long Term Analysis below. This is for us to track our past track records.

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Short Term analysis (Updated Week 52 – 29th Dec 18):

Using the daily candle stick with a time frame of 2-3 years, we have the below observations:

 

  1. As mentioned last week, break out of the “cup and handle” formation has continued and Gold is has now reached 1,280. Congrats to those whom have longed gold.
  2. While all the technical indicators have showed signs of bullishness (Stoch, MACD, RSI & Oscillation) we would expect it to be reaching over bought level soon.
  3. Next level resistance would be expected to be in the range of US 1,305/oz.
  4. Gold would be expected to come off at US 1,305/oz level before re-testing to break up to the next level.
  5. Fundamentally, the bullishness of Gold continued to be the following:
    1. Weakness in USD
    2. FED are getting increased pressure not to increase Interest rates
    3. US govt shutdown
    4. Brexit uncertainties
    5. Global political tensions (i.e. Ukraine, Korea etc)

Mid Term Analysis (Updated 29th Dec 18):

Using the daily candle stick with a time frame of 10 years, we can see that similar to short term analysis, Gold would be expected to reach the resistance level of US 1,305/oz where technical analysis remained to be bullish.

 

 

Long Term analysis (Updated 29th Dec 18):

Using the weekly candle stick, we can see that Gold is on an uptrend since April 2001 of US 254/oz to an all time high of US 1921/oz in Sep 2011.

Looking at the large secular trend, we can see that gold is generally still on the uptrend. The strong bullish momentum has lasted 10 years, followed by a healthy correction of 4 years with support of US 1,047/oz (ended in Dec 2015).

It is currently on a consolidation phase with a range of US 1,047/oz to US 1,375/oz.

From Peak to trough, Fibo % is currently near to 61% level.

Note: In contrast to Short and Mid term analysis, we can see there is a lower resistance at US 1,285/oz from the long term chart. Do be cautious and apply your stop losses in the event where Gold failed to break up.

 

 

 

Past weeks Short Term analysis:

 

Short Term analysis (Updated Week 51 – 22nd Dec 18): Actual in line with expectations

Using the daily candle stick with a time frame of 2-3 years, we have the below observations:

 

  1. As mentioned last week on the larger time frame where “cup and handle” formation have been formed and it has indeed had a good break out where Gold has spiked up to 1,267.
  2. All the technical indicators are showing signs of bullishness (Stoch, MACD, RSI & Oscillation).
  3. Next level resistance would be expected to be in the range of 1,305.
  4. Fundamentally, the bullishness of Gold is due to the following
    1. Weakness in USD
    2. FED are getting increased pressure not to increase Interest rates
    3. US govt shutdown
    4. Brexit uncertainties
    5. Global political tensions (i.e. Ukraine, Korea etc)

 

 

Short Term analysis (Updated Week 50 – 16th Dec 18): – Actual in line with expectation

Using the daily candle stick with a time frame of 2-3 years, we have the below observations:

 

  1. As mentioned last week, there is a slight immediate resistance at 1,250.48 (Fibonacci 60.18% resistance) where Gold has indeed retreated from that point.
  2. The immediate support would be 1,230 (this was the previous resistance turn support level).
  3. Basis other technical analysis indicators, it seems for Gold to remain flat or weak in the coming week (Stoch, RSI & MACD are all looking weak)
  4. In the event if Gold break down 1,230, the next stronger support would be at around 1,227 range where 50MA crosses 150MA. This technical reading usually would create a strong support to the chart.
  5. In the larger time frame, the chart pattern of “cup and handle” would likely to evolve to include another smaller bump to re-test 1,250.48 for the bullish confirmation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term analysis (Updated Week 49 – 9th Dec 18): Actual in line with expectation

Using the daily candle stick with a time frame of 2-3 years, we have the below observations:

As compared to the previous week,

  1. As mentioned last week, we would expect gold to break up if it goes above 1,230 and I am happy to share that it has indeed broken up.
  2. The main reason for this break up is due to the weaker performance of NFP (Non Farm Payroll) where it resulted in a weaker USD.
  3. With the break up, we noticed that Gold’s RSI, MACD, Stoch have all turned into bullish mode and would expect this to go on for a few more days before the indicators becomes overbought
  4. Gold’s chart is now trading above both 50 and 150 moving averages where 50 & 150 would likely to turn into bullish support signal in the coming days
  5. While Gold has broken up, we noticed that it faced a slight immediate resistance at 1,250.48 (Fibonacci 60.18% resistance). If broken up, the next level of resistance would be at 1,305.86 (Fibonacci 78.6%)
  6. The chart pattern coincides with the formation of Cup & handle which is bullish in nature.
  7. In conclusion, I would hold onto my longs to see more price action next week.
  8. Stop loss level would be around 1,230 level (+/- 2 pts for margin of error)

 

 

 

 

Short Term analysis (Updated Week 48 – 2nd Dec 18): (Actual In line with expectation)

Using the daily candle stick with a time frame of 2-3 years, we have the below observations:

As compared to the previous week,

  1. Profit taking continued to take place, Stoch being the very short term indicator has shown signs of bullishness. However, the gradient of RSI continue to be trending down towards overbought region (likely for gold to go down further)
  2. Strength of MACD and Oscillation are now flat towards negative region
  3. Chart is trading below 150 and 200 days of moving average
  4. Basis technical drawings, we can see that gold is trading on a tighter range with resistance at the levels of (US 1,300/oz, US 1,245/oz & 1,230/oz) where immediate support level would be at the range of US 1,205/oz.
  5. Potentially below are the 2 types of scenarios that might play out:
    1. Gold hit support at 1,205 and bounce back up or;
    2. Gold breakout above 1,230

 

 

 

 

Short Term analysis (Updated Week 47 – 25th Nov 18): (Actual In line with expectation)

Using the daily candle stick with a time frame of 2-3 years, we have the below observations:

 

  1. Stoch & RSI are at the overbought region, we should be expecting some short term profit taking to happen in the coming week
  2. Strength of MACD and Oscillation are not exactly strong
  3. Chart is trading below 150 and 200 days of moving average
  4. Basis technical drawings, we can see that gold is trading on a tighter range with resistance at the levels of (US 1,300/oz, US 1,245/oz & 1,230/oz) where immediate support level would be at the range of US 1,205/oz.