WEEK 37 8TH SEP 2019: MACRO, CHINA 2823:HK A50,GOLD, DJI, & BOND YIELD

Disclaimer: All information shared is solely for learning purpose and it does not constitute to a buy/sell call.

 

Quick round up of what happened last week:

  1. Trade war tension between China & US have been lowered as constructive talks are on-going between China & US. As a result, we have seen a major spike in world wide indices and a drop in VIX (volatility index).
  2. Hong Kong’s proposed extradition bill have been withdrawn but protesters are not showing signs of lowering down the tension (more details below)
  3. UK: As mentioned 2 weeks ago, it is a mammoth task for Brexit to happen by 31st Oct. True enough, Boris Johnson is now in a fix as his proposed “No-Deal Brexit” did not get much support. We can see that as a result, GBP has fallen to multi year’s low.
  4. Gold: As mentioned last week, gold has executed the small pull back and we would expect another few days of pull back before demand comes in again (do join my Telegram group for the latest posting of the chart). Note: Gold is very bullish in the Mid & Long term.
  5. Powell has spoken last Friday where he has mentioned that Fed would act appropriately to ensure growth of the economy. The economy however, seems to be growing.
    This would cast an uncertainty as to whether Interest rates would be cut twice by December 2019.
    In the mid term, it is clear that Fed would be using Interest rate cut as a tool to ensure the growth of US economy. This would sort of ensure continued blowing of economic bubble of the US indices.
    Do trade carefully with a guaranteed stop loss as we would not know when and which large MNC would be the first to throw the white towel (a.k.a. Bankruptcy).

Hong Kong’s protesters demands:

(i) Withdrawing the extradition Bill
(ii) Setting up a Commission of Inquiry 
(iii) The matter of treating protest as being a riot 
(iv) Dropping charges against protesters and rioters and shelving prosecutions. 
(v) Implementing universal suffrage.

 

Charts:

Update on China A50 2823:HK

  1. China A50 is seeing an imminent break out to the resistance level at the red channel mentioned last week (do refer to last week’s post)

 

 

 

 

Updates on Gold:

  1. Gold: As mentioned above, gold has executed the small pull back and we would expect another few days of pull back before demand comes in again (do join my Telegram group for the latest posting of the chart). Note: Gold is very bullish in the Mid & Long term.

 

 

 

 

Updates on Dow Jones (DJI):

  1. Bullish chart, very likely to retest all time high and achieve break out

 

Updates on Bond Yield:

  1. While Bond yield is still on a down trend, it has slightly increased by 50 bps for 2,3 and 5 and 10 years yield.

 

 

P.s. I have recently started a Telegram group for InvestWhizz readers to help to disseminate/share latest news/information in a faster manner. Happy to see it growing from 70+ members to 100+ members!

 

Should you have any queries on the above posting, do feel free to post in the Telegram group as well. Please feel free to share to those whom you think may benefit as well.

Link to join Telegram group: http://t.me/Investwhizz

 

People have been asking me which broker am I using, I am currently using IG due to their offering of Guaranteed stop loss (this is VERY IMPORTANT feature in my opinion). Do refer to this link for Referral. You will get SGD 100 from IG for free for opening & trading the account.

 

Regards,

Ernest Koh