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Overview: Global equity market was most recently seen driven by fresh concerns surrounding the US election after President Donald Trump was tested positive for Covid-19. This comes after Democratic nominee Joe Biden widened the lead in polls with President Trump as we look to markets remain US election sensitive going into the fresh week.
Items to note
· President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump had most recently been tested positive for Covid-19, denting risk sentiment in the immediate aftermath of the announcement. Although President Trump may be considered the high-risk group for Covid-19, it is reported that he is ‘well’ according to his doctor so it remains to be seen how long this disruption will be for his campaign and markets.
· US vice presidential debate will be next on the calendar, currently expected to be held on Wednesday, October 7, 9am eastern (Thursday, 9am SGT). It is uncertain if the October 15 second presidential debate will continue given President Donald Trump’s Covid-19 positive test and there are some talks about Mike Pence being the expected candidate to step up if President Donald Trump’s conditions should worsen to any extent in which he is unable to take the stage. Quite a lot to watch on policies as well through the vice presidential debate assuming no changes here.
· China holidays continue till Thursday, Oct 8, with the return on Friday coinciding with the September Caixin services PMI release in the morning. It will be one watching the market reaction after all the US election matters prior to which with the data unlikely to significantly move market after having seen strong figures in the official readings.
· FOMC minutes from the September meeting will be released on Wednesday in the US. The meeting had marked the first since a change to their forward guidance under the new average inflation targeting regime while the Fed had also revised up their forecasts. One to track for the range of views here, particularly with regards to the specifics. In the week, a series of Fed members including Fed chair Jerome Powell will also be speaking.
· Brexit crunch time is noted with the final rounds of talks now over while PM Boris Johnson is expected to hold further conversations with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen over the weekend that had been seen as positive. GBP/USD inched higher with the news, one to watch into the fresh week.
· RBA monetary policy meeting will be held Tuesday with consensus pointing to no change in monetary policy on Tuesday, although expectations remain that the central bank could further cut rates into the November meeting to a record low. Federal budget will be due on the same day.
· OPEC World Oil Outlook report will be released on Thursday amid declining oil prices on the back of oversupply concerns. US oil inventory report will be due prior on Wednesday, ones to watch as Brent Crude oil dip past $40/bbl.
· Singapore’s advance Q3 GDP may be released any time between October 7-14 alongside the MAS monetary policy decision, thought the exact date is yet to be announced.
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